Calculated in accordance with the January 2, 2014 opening price, by the end of November 25, 2014, the LED chip is leading the cumulative decline reached about 12%. But in the company's performance this year has maintained a 30%-40% growth rate of net profit. And LED, the whole industry has also ushered in the permeability stage of rapid growth in 2014, a few years ago the upstream production overcapacity situation, was a big relief in this year, chip prices remained stable. According to the research on our LED industry chain in the near future, we found that some large enterprises upstream chip have basically reached full production with marketing situation.
核心观点：
The core point of view:
1)LED行业是高景气行业，而国外上游LED厂商扩产并不积极，中国将成为全球LED芯片代工基地，三安光电做为LED芯片龙头，以及具有国际领先的技术，将会成为最直接受益的公司之一。
1) the LED industry is high and the upstream industry boom, foreign LED companies expansion is not positive, Chinese will become the global LED chip manufacturing base, an optoelectronic as LED chip leader, and has the international leading technology, will become one of the most direct benefit of the company.
2)三安光电在近期毛利率和净利率提升明显，未来继续扩产能带来进一步成本下降，有利于公司盈利能力的持续提升。
2) an optoelectronic in recent gross and net rates increase significantly, continue to expand capacity to bring further decline in the cost of future, continuing to enhance the beneficial to the company to profitability.
3)公司在整合LED产业链决心明显，未来有较大几率在行业内进行并购重组。
3) companies in the integration of LED industry chain is determined to clear, the future have a greater chance of mergers and acquisitions in the industry.
4)公司带杠杆的员工持股计划持仓成本为14.75元左右，而公司股票现价为14元，有较大的安全边际。
4) company with lever cost of employee stock ownership plan positions for 14.75 yuan, and the company stock price is 14 yuan, has a larger margin of safety.
1. 简述LED照明产业链
1 the LED lighting industry chain
之前很多大V已经把LED照明产业链整理的比较清晰了，所以我们这次以个股为主，行业为辅，不在大篇幅介绍整个LED产业链。
Before a lot of big V had LED lighting industry chain finishing more clear, so we this to stock based, supplemented by the introduction of industry, not the whole LED industry chain in the large space.
(图1：LED照明行业简介)
(map 1:LED lighting industry)
简单的说，LED照明行业可分为上游芯片及蓝宝石衬底、中游封装测试和下游照明应用。在上游三安光电和德豪润达规模优势比较明显，中游国星光电和长方照明是龙头，而下游照明应用中雷士，佛山和阳光照明渠道端比较突出。
Simply put, LED lighting industry can be divided into the upper reaches of the chip and a sapphire substrate, the middle package testing and downstream lighting applications. In the upper reaches of Sanan optoelectronics and BDO scale advantage is quite obvious, the middle reaches of China Star optoelectronics and rectangular lighting is bibcock, while the downstream lighting application of NVC, Foshan and sunshine lighting channel end more prominent.
(图2：微笑曲线图)
(Figure 2: smile curve)
LED照明行业完全符合微笑曲线图，在上游芯片和下游应用是附加值最高的领域。上游领域的芯片除了研发需投入大量的经费外，每台MOCVD的价格是2000万/台，50台以上才能上规模，所以新入企业至少要投资10亿。再加上机器需要调试磨合大概需要1-2年，第三年机器的状态会达到最佳，但在第5年以后机器会变得没有原先经济，所以上游行情是高度资本密集型行业，准入门槛较高。
LED lighting industry is fully consistent with the smile curve in the upstream and downstream applications, the chip is the highest added value field. The upstream areas of chip in addition to R & D need to invest a lot of money, each MOCVD price is 20000000 / Taiwan, more than 50 to scale, so the new entry into the enterprise to invest at least 1000000000. Coupled with the machine need to debug running probably needs 1-2 years, third years will reach the best state of the machine, but the machine in fifth years would be without the original economy, so the upstream market is highly capital intensive industry, the entry threshold higher.
而下游照明应用行业最大的拼渠道和品牌，谁的渠道多，谁的品牌认知度高，谁就能在下游领域占到较大的份额。而渠道和品牌的建立需要长时间的积累和拓展，所以下游的准入门槛也比较高。其中，雷士照明，阳光照明和佛山照明在下游的优势比较明显。
While the downstream lighting applications industry's largest spell channels and brand, who channels, whose brand awareness high, who will be able to account for a large share in the downstream area. But the channel and brand building need long time of accumulation and development, so the lower reaches of the access threshold is relatively high. Among them, lighting, lighting and Foshan sunshine lighting more obvious in the lower reaches of the advantages.
(图3：全球MOCVD增长速度)
(Figure 3: Global MOCVD growth rate)
由于投入的成本过高，而且LED芯片价格不稳定，全球LED芯片厂商扩充十分谨慎。从2013-2017年全球MOCVD复合增长率仅为3.7%，远低于LED芯片需求端的增长。从图4中可以看出，2013年-2017年，LED芯片需求复合增长率率大概是在13%，2014年出现了供需两旺的情况，上游库存快速下降，短期面临产能不足的情况。
Because of the high cost of inputs, and the LED chip price instability, the global LED chip manufacturers expand very cautious. From the 2013-2017 global MOCVD compound growth rate of only 3.7%, far below the LED chip demand the end of growth. As can be seen from Figure 4, 2013 -2017, LED chip demand compound growth rate is about 13%, appeared 2014 steel supply and demand situation, the upstream inventory decreased rapidly, short faced capacity shortage situation.
